On January 28th, 2014, UBS Investment Bank Global Economist Paul Donovan presented his global outlook entitled “Now what? Life in a divergent world” to a floor of IUM faculty members, undergraduate and graduate students, alumni, and guests from the Monegasque financial community.
Mr. Donovan started his talk by presenting his forecasts of economic growth and inflation for major economies before focusing on the following hot topics: the US tapering, the lagged European recovery and the new economic package in Japan or Abenomics. Regarding the Fed and its impact on global market, Mr. Donovan argued that problems in emerging market were more down to bad policy on their part than anything the Fed is doing with its printing machine, saying : “It’s not what you print, it is where you put it that matters”.
While Paul is confident about a solid US economic growth this year, he was more bearish about Europe and its capacity to recover due to its remaining fiscal challenges and its persistent weak credit demand. Paul also spoke about nationalism as another great danger for European countries and in fine the Euro survival.
Students and professors alike met his compelling presentation very enthusiastically and participated eagerly in the Q&A session.
Reported by Dr. Gadzinski, Professor in the MSc in Finance Program